Rebirth of the Industrial Tycoon

What Li Weidong said was exactly what he planned to report.

Now that he has informed Situjian of his thoughts, he also talked to Situjian first. If he can persuade Situjian, he will be more helpful when he reports later.

Situjian is quite outstanding among the academicians. If he can get his affirmation, Li Weidong will also have extra points when reporting.

After Li Weidong made the judgment that the key is in the stock market, Situjian thought carefully, and his face suddenly turned into a serious expression.

The Asian financial crisis was detonated because of Thailand's monetary policy. The attack points of international financial predators are also in the currency systems of Southeast Asian countries. The focus of economists around the world is also on the currencies of various countries.

Economists are discussing the reasons for the outbreak of the Asian financial crisis, and discussing the shortcomings of the financial systems of Southeast Asian countries. All eyes are on the currency.

Not only was Situjian unable to think of the problem of the stock market, but so many top economists in the world, including those Nobel laureates in economics, did not expect Soros to turn his guns on the stock market.

Of course, it is also possible that someone saw it, but did not say it. After all, 80% of the Nobel Prize winners in economics are Americans, and most of the world-renowned economists are also Americans.

Many of these economists have part-time jobs on Wall Street. They are casually appointed as consultants and receive a sum of money every year.

From the perspective of hindsight, Soros's tactics are some very common financial warfare tactics. However, in 1997, these tactics left economists all over the world at a loss.

In fact, for economists, Soros's tricks are not difficult to understand. As long as someone can pierce that layer of window paper, someone who understands a little economics will suddenly be enlightened.

But now, Li Weidong has become the one who pierced the window paper. After a little reminder, Situjian understood what Li Weidong meant.

After thinking for a while, Situjian felt that the possibility Li Weidong said was very high, so he said: "Xiao Li, your prediction is very constructive, and it is worth conducting in-depth discussions and research. of.

When you report to the leader in a while, you can confidently explain your own ideas, and I will help you check and fill in the gaps from the side. "

After listening to Situjian's words, Li Weidong let out a sigh of relief. With Situjian's help, reporting would be much easier.

...

After waiting for a long time, Li Weidong was finally received by the leader.

Li Weidong reported the stock market as a key judgment to the leader, and Situjian also added two sentences from time to time.

With Situjian's help, the reporting effect was surprisingly good.

The leader also had questions he wanted to ask, but he only asked: "Li Weidong, the first time I saw your name, it was a report on Japan's future economic policy, and that report was written by you. The economic policy predictions have finally come true.

It seems that you are very familiar with the Japanese economy, and you have said before that the root cause of the Asian financial crisis lies in Japan, so I would like to hear your judgment on the follow-up of the Japanese economy. "

At that time, Japan was a five trillion dollar economy, and the rest of Asia combined was not as good as Japan. It is no exaggeration to say that when Japan sneezes, all of Asia will catch a cold.

At that time, China, as the second largest economy in Asia, only had a GDP of more than 800 billion US dollars, which was not as good as one-fifth of Japan. In addition, the investment and trade between China and Japan were huge, and domestic decision-makers were very concerned about Japan. The economic situation is naturally given special attention.

Before Li Weidong came, he also did his homework in this area. After organizing the language, he began to report.

"I think the storm of the Southeast Asian financial crisis will soon burn on Japan's ass, and it will have a very serious impact on the Japanese economy, and the Japanese economy is likely to fall into a long-term recession.

The reason why I make this judgment is mainly based on the following reasons. First, Japan regards Southeast Asia as its most important market, especially the dumping ground for automobiles, electronic products and industrial raw materials.

These are all core products exported by Japan. Once the Southeast Asian economy is hit, it will affect the terminal of the Japanese market and hit Japan's export industry heavily.

Second, Southeast Asia is also an important production base for Japan. In recent years, Japan has relocated many industrial chains to Southeast Asia, and companies such as Panasonic, Sony, and Toyota have established factories in Southeast Asia, and consortia such as Mitsui and Sumitomo are also Relying on Southeast Asia to carry out trade activities.

Once the economies of Southeast Asian countries collapse, the business of Japanese companies in Southeast Asia will be severely hit, which will not only cause losses to Japan's investment in Southeast Asia, but also affect the industrial chain transferred from Japan to Southeast Asia.

The third is the ASEAN Free Trade Area that Japan has been promoting. Once ASEAN’s economy is weakened, Japan’s right to speak in Southeast Asia will also be weakened, and Japan’s overall economic and political status will also be weakened.

The first three points are all influenced by external factors. For such a huge economy as Japan, it will only hurt the skin, not the bones. The fourth point I want to talk about is the one that hurts Japan. matter. "

Li Weidong paused deliberately to let the leader's attention focus on himself, and then said: "Fourth, the problem of bad debts in Japan.

The real estate bubble in Japan and the excessive credit in recent years have caused a large number of bad debts. This problem will break out with the Southeast Asian financial crisis. This will bring a fatal blow to Japan's economy! "

The leader nodded silently, then looked at Situ Jian next to him, apparently asking for Situ Jian's opinion.

Situjian understood the leader's intention and immediately asked, "Xiao Li, is there any evidence to support this?"

Li Weidong replied: "The data given by various financial institutions in Japan is my evidence support."

"That's not right!" Situjian frowned and asked; "I have been paying attention to the data of several major Japanese banks and financial institutions, and their debt situation is relatively healthy, although it can be seen that Risks, but all are within the controllable range.”

"It's because their data is so healthy that they can't even see uncontrollable financial risks that I feel the seriousness of the problem!" Li Weidong said.

Situjian was stunned for a moment, and then asked with a look of surprise: "You mean, Japanese financial institutions have falsified their data?"

Li Weidong nodded: "The volume of Japan's real estate bubble was really too big. It is impossible to have such healthy data on the debt accumulated by puncturing the real estate bubble."

Situ Jian shook his head: "I don't completely agree with your judgment. Although I admit that it is very likely that some financial institutions will falsify the data, but there are so many financial institutions in Japan, all of which I think are falsified. It's impossible."

"Academician Situ, you are overestimating the integrity of Japanese companies!" Li Weidong smiled and continued, "If data fraud becomes an unspoken rule, then everyone will do it.

I firmly believe that Japanese financial institutions are collectively falsifying data, and the Japanese financial sector, and even the Ministry of Finance, which is in charge of finance, even acquiesced in such behavior.

This poses a great risk to Japan's financial system. Once a financial institution has a thunderstorm, it will trigger a chain-like and irreversible reaction.

According to my observation, Yamaichi Securities, one of Japan's four major brokerages, may be the bomb. In May, Xiaochuan Securities, a subsidiary of Yamaichi Securities, had already closed its business, which is not a good sign.

Perhaps the fortress of Yamaichi Securities is in sight. So I suggest that if our country invests in the Japanese securities industry, it should withdraw immediately to avoid risks! "

...

During the Asian financial crisis in 1997, two countries adopted a laissez-faire attitude towards the devaluation of their national currencies. After facing the attack of the international group of financial giants, they just lay flat and let their currencies depreciate.

One is the Philippines. The Philippine government believes that currency devaluation will benefit Philippine exports, so it allows the Philippine peso to depreciate.

Of course, another reason is that the Philippines does not have so many foreign exchange reserves, so it can fight against the international financial giants.

What's more, the industry in the Philippines is relatively backward. The GDP is mainly driven by the service industry, and the largest part of it is the export of foreign workers. The devaluation of the Philippine peso has made the money sent by foreign workers appear to be more.

International financial predators are not fools. The Philippines is a poor place, and there is not much oil and water. They made a bit of deboned meat in the Philippines, and they moved to other countries and regions.

It is also for this reason that economists rarely talk about the Philippines in the Asian financial crisis. When everyone is discussing how to eat fat beef, who cares about that little bit of deboned meat?

The smaller the base, the easier it is to recover. During the Asian financial crisis, the loss of the Philippines was not large compared to other countries. After the financial crisis, the Philippines only took a year to recover the economic level before the Asian financial crisis.

Another country that has allowed its currency to depreciate is Japan.

Japan's calculus is the same as that of the Philippines, that the depreciation of the yen is good for exports.

At that time, Japan was the world's largest exporter. Nearly 40% of Japan's GDP was driven by exports. If the yen depreciated significantly, it would inevitably stimulate Japan's exports, thereby boosting Japan's economy.

And in the past few years, the yen has been appreciating, so Japan believes that the yen has a lot of room for depreciation.

But Japan miscalculated, and that was the Asian financial crisis, which collapsed Japan's domestic debt system.

After Japan burst the real estate bubble that year, there were a lot of bad debts. However, Japan's economy continued to advance by leaps and bounds until 1995, as if it was not dragged down by real estate.

However, the problem of bad and bad debts in real estate is actually only covered up, but it has not been solved.

After the outbreak of the Asian financial crisis, the Japanese financial industry could no longer continue to obtain high profits from Southeast Asia. The mines planted when the real estate bubble was punctured finally exploded at this time.

As early as May 1997, the closure of Japan's Ogawa Securities was a warning, and it was precisely when the international financial giants launched the last tentative attack on Thailand.

Ogawa Securities is affiliated with Yamaichi Securities, which is one of the four major Japanese brokerages. The closure of Ogawa Securities also hints from the side that Yamaichi Securities has thunder.

By October, the Kyoto-based Kyoei Bank, as well as the Japanese retailer Yaohan, had collapsed.

The main business of Kyoto Coprosperity Bank is to invest in Southeast Asia, while Yaohan has been expanding its business in Southeast Asia wildly since 1990, and it also conducts trade activities in Southeast Asian countries.

The business of these two companies is closely related to Southeast Asia. The Southeast Asian financial crisis directly led to the bankruptcy of these two companies.

On November 3, Sanyo Securities, Japan's seventh largest brokerage, officially declared bankruptcy.

Before the collapse of Sanyo Securities, it also lingered for a long time. At that time, Japan's Ministry of Finance, which was in charge of finance, lobbied many financial institutions, hoping to save Sanyo Securities.

However, at that juncture, everyone had no surplus food, and no one was willing to take advantage of it to increase capital, so Sanyo Securities set a precedent for the collapse of Japanese securities companies after the war.

This also shows from the side that Japan's Ministry of Finance knows the real situation of various financial institutions, but the Ministry of Finance did not find a way to solve the problem, but "covered the quilt" with major financial institutions.

On November 17, Hokkaido Takushoku Bank, one of Japan's top ten banks, collapsed.

Hokkaido Takushoku Bank has not invested in Southeast Asia. Their main business is loans to the domestic real estate industry in Japan, which also means that the Japanese real estate bubble is officially bursting.

On November 24, Yamaichi Securities, one of Japan's four major brokerages, announced its bankruptcy. This securities company ship board and 1897, experienced the baptism of World War II, still stand still, but collapsed on the occasion of its 100th birthday.

The collapse of Sany Securities stemmed from a bribery scandal. At that time, a yakuza in Japan discovered that Yamaichi Securities had been conducting illegal transactions for the past six years.

Since 1991, Yamaichi Securities has been providing guaranteed dividend distribution services to some major customers, similar to the internal knock-on in the domestic securities market.

Of course, this kind of behavior is not allowed, but many financial institutions at that time often did this kind of thing secretly in order to snatch the resources of major customers.

However, after this incident was discovered by the gang, they extorted and extorted from Yamaichi Securities, and Yamaichi Securities also chose to pay.

It's a pity that the gang's mouth is not strict enough, and the extortion is still exposed.

So according to the Japanese tradition, the leader of Yamaichi Securities bowed and apologized, then resigned and ran away.

After the new leader took office, he began to investigate illegal transactions, but it turned out that Yamaichi Securities had manipulated the accounts and hid 260 billion yen of debt, which was left when the real estate bubble burst. Bad and bad debts.

The new leader of Yamaichi Securities was unwilling to take the blame, so he reported the fraudulent account to the Ministry of Finance in Japan, and the huge debt of 260 billion yen also directly overwhelmed Yamaichi Securities.

However, for the Japanese, the scandal of Yamaichi Securities' fraudulent accounting is just the beginning. Investors realize that other Japanese financial companies will not be so clean, and they may also be doing fraudulent accounting.

When Japanese real estate was at its peak, a single piece of real estate in Tokyo was enough to buy the entire United States. Such a large volume suddenly burst, how could it be that only Yamaichi Securities was cheating? How could a Yamaichi Securities swallow such a big bubble!

Perhaps the province of Tibet knows about the bad debts of various financial institutions, but the choice of the province is to "cover the quilt" together.

As a result of the choice of capital to leave, Japan's various securities companies, as well as major credit banks, all embarked on the line of life and death, the entire Japanese financial industry collapsed in an instant, and then the Japanese economy fell into recession.

The 30 years lost in Japan has officially begun!

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