Rebirth of the Industrial Tycoon

In July, people all over the country are celebrating the return of Hong Kong Island. Before the clock strikes twelve o'clock, many Chinese people are standing in front of the TV, looking forward to that historic moment.

Staying up late hurts the body. On the morning of July 1st, many office workers are late.

It is precisely because they just stayed up all night, on the night of July 2, those who stayed up late last night chose to go to bed early.

Situ Jian is the same.

It is said that at Situjian's age, sleep should decrease, but last night was so exciting. Even after the live broadcast, Situjian recalled the scene when the national flag was raised, and he was still full of excitement, lying on the bed for two or three times. Haven't slept for hours.

As a result, in the daytime the next day, Situ Jian became a waste dog, dozing off all day.

After finally staying up late at night, Situ Jian yawned and went to bed after dinner, and soon fell asleep.

Until the phone rang, Situ Jian woke up from his sleep.

Situ Jian looked at his watch, it was five minutes before six in the morning.

Although he slept for more than ten hours, he still didn't get enough sleep. He walked over to the phone and picked up the receiver.

"Academician Situ, just 25 minutes ago, the Bank of Thailand announced that it would abandon the fixed exchange rate system and implement a floating exchange rate system!" the man on the phone said eagerly.

Hearing this news, Situ Jian woke up violently, and his anger disappeared instantly without a trace.

"Twenty-five minutes ago, it was half past five, and the local time in Thailand was half past four!" Situ Jian instantly realized that the situation in Thailand had really reached a precarious point.

Under normal circumstances, how can the central bank of a country announce a new monetary policy at 4:30 in the morning? Can't wait until daytime?

And the central bank of Thailand has done so, apparently can't wait a few hours!

Situjian quickly estimated that 4:30 in Thailand time was basically a gap in foreign exchange transactions.

Every country in the world has a foreign exchange market, so theoretically the foreign exchange market is open 24 hours a day.

For example, the foreign exchange market in Moscow is closed, and the foreign exchange market in Frankfurt is still operating. At this time, you can switch to the foreign exchange market in Frankfurt; the foreign exchange market in Frankfurt is closed, but the foreign exchange market in London is still open, and you can switch to London at this time; , the foreign exchange market in New York opened again, and so on.

But in practice,

The foreign exchange market is not always active 24 hours a day, and there are always gaps in the middle.

Taking China's time as the calculation standard, the regular time during the day is the period when the Asian foreign exchange market is open. In the afternoon time in China, the foreign exchange markets in the Middle East and Eastern Europe open one after another.

The Chinese side closed, and the foreign exchange market in Western Europe opened again. By night in China, Western Europe's foreign exchange markets are trading happily, while the United States prepares to open.

In the early morning of the next day in China, the United States also closed. From the closing of the US market to the opening of the Japanese market, that is, the period when the sun sweeps over the Pacific Ocean, there is no major foreign exchange market in operation, which is a gap period for foreign exchange transactions.

The Bank of Thailand chose to announce a new monetary policy at 4:30 a.m., showing that it was stuck at the threshold of this gap in foreign exchange transactions.

The special selection of this foreign exchange gap period to announce a new monetary policy also means that in the US foreign exchange market that has just been closed, the Bank of Thailand has fired the last bullet, and they can't wait for Tokyo to open.

"Finally, I gave up the fixed exchange rate. What should come will always come, but the actual situation in Thailand is much worse than I imagined. It seems that another seminar needs to be held." Situjian breathed a sigh of admiration.

Thinking of the seminar, Situjian suddenly remembered that at the seminar a few days ago, Li Weidong predicted that the time for Thailand to abandon the fixed exchange rate should be on July 2nd or 3rd, and today is July 2nd.

"Li Weidong really got it right!" Situ Jian was suddenly full of surprise.

"It's enough to predict that Thailand will give up the solid exchange rate, but even the date is accurately predicted, which is a bit outrageous!"

...

In the second seminar, the people who arrived early were in groups of three and five, discussing in a low voice.

"Thailand gave up its fixed exchange rate on July 2, and that Li Weidong really got it right!"

"It's amazing to have estimated the detailed dates!"

"Yeah, when he said July 2nd or 3rd, I also thought he was talking nonsense. Now it seems that this is God's prediction!"

"I think this Li Weidong is not simple, his financial attainments are unfathomable!"

"It's definitely not an ordinary person who can make a company so big."

At this moment, Li Weidong came in from outside.

"Chairman Li, here we come!"

"Chairman Li, your position is here!"

"Pour some tea for Chairman Li!"

This time, as soon as Li Weidong walked into the conference room, he was immediately treated like a star.

The reason is naturally that Li Weidong successfully predicted the time when Thailand would abandon the fixed exchange rate.

Economic forecasting has always been a very confusing thing.

For economists, a lifetime of research is not as good as an accurate forecast. Many well-known economists will be admired by the world for making accurate predictions only once in a lifetime.

Those who thought that Li Weidong's prediction was bullshit have also put aside their contempt, regardless of whether Li Weidong's prediction has scientific basis, since the prediction is accurate, then the winner is king.

Just as Li Weidong sat down on his forefoot, a middle-aged man in his forties approached.

This person, Li Weidong, does not know him, so he should not be the economist who participated in the discussion.

I just heard this person introduce himself; "Chairman Li, my name is Zhao Jinshan, I do some financial investment business on Hong Kong Island."

Li Weidong was stunned for a moment, and he secretly wondered how people who made financial investments on Hong Kong Island would get involved in today's meeting.

However, this person's accent is an authentic Beijing accent, so Li Weidong asked, "Boss Zhao, you should be from the capital, right?"

"Yes, I was born in the capital, grew up in a compound, and only went to Hong Kong Island in the last two years." Zhao Jinshan replied.

Li Weidong guessed Zhao Jinshan's identity when he heard the words "Growing up in the courtyard".

At that time, a person from the capital could go to Hong Kong Island to do business, and it was also financial. Judging from Zhao Jinshan's age, the elders in his family may not have retired.

I just listened to Zhao Jinshan then said: "When the last seminar was held, I also came to listen. At that time, you said that on July 2nd or 3rd, Thailand would give up the fixed exchange rate. I think what you said is reasonable, so it is Several transactions were made on the foreign exchange market.

The result is really as you said, Thailand gave up the fixed exchange rate on July 2, and I also made a fortune. I came here today, firstly to thank Chairman Li, and secondly to ask Chairman Li to continue to give advice. "

"I met an international financial speculator!" Li Weidong said with a smile.

"What kind of international financial speculator am I? I just follow behind those financial predators and eat some leftovers. The key is the guidance of an expert like you." Zhao Jinshan said with a smile.

"Boss Zhao is very polite. I'm not an expert. I'm just making some judgments based on the current situation." Li Weidong replied.

"Then Chairman Li thinks, what will the situation in Thailand be next?" Zhao Jinshan asked immediately.

"The devaluation of the Thai baht has just begun. In the next month, if you follow those financial giants, you will definitely not suffer. When the Thai baht completely collapses and Thailand is unprofitable, those financial giants will fight. Other battlefields." Li Weidong replied.

"Where are the other battlefields?" Zhao Jinshan asked again.

Li Weidong thought for a while and replied, "I think the next target for international financial speculators is Malaysia. Malaysia's interest rate is also very high. Their ringgit is currently a fixed exchange rate system. In addition, Hong Kong Island will also become an international financial speculator. target of the attack.

However, Hong Kong Island's foreign exchange reserves are very rich, and there is not much foreign debt. The financial system is more mature and the financial structure is relatively healthy, which can withstand the first wave of attacks by international financial speculators. If international financial speculators attack Hong Kong Island, they will inevitably suffer losses, and then you should not follow up. "

"My financial investment company is on Hong Kong Island, so there is no reason to attack myself! If international financial speculators dare to come, I will definitely support Hong Kong Island!"

Zhao Jinshan paused, then asked, "Will those in Indonesia and the Philippines also be attacked by international financial speculators?"

"Of course!" Li Weidong nodded and continued: "It's just that Indonesia and the Philippines are too poor. Even if they are successful in attacking the Indonesian rupiah and the Philippine peso, the profit will be limited. It is far better to attack the Thai baht and the Malaysian ringgit. A great deal.”

Zhao Jinshan suddenly realized and nodded: "It makes sense, those bandits who used to occupy the mountain as kings were all rich and poor peasants who had no money, and they couldn't grab anything."

"So look farther, don't stare at poor people like Indonesia and the Philippines, look at rich countries." Li Weidong replied with a smile.

"A rich country? You mean Japan? International financial speculators will also attack Japan? This is unlikely! Japan is the second largest economy in the world!" Zhao Jinshan said.

"I'm not talking about Japan, but South Korea." Li Weidong smiled and continued; "This topic will be more troublesome to explain, so let's have a meeting first. If there is a chance, I will explain it in detail at the seminar."

...

After a while, Situjian came to the conference room with a gentle middle-aged man beside him.

I just listened to Situjian's introduction: "The superior leaders are also very concerned about our seminar. The X office also specially sent Secretary Chen here to participate in this seminar, everyone is welcome!"

After a round of applause, the gentle man said, "Mr. Teachers, I will make a long story short, our leaders attach great importance to today's seminar and are also very interested in the content of the seminar.

However, due to the busy work, the leader could not be present in person to discuss with the teachers, so he specially sent me to attend this seminar.

In addition, before leaving, the leader asked me to bring three questions. I hope these three questions can be participated in this seminar. "

Secretary Chen said, opened his portable notebook, and said, "The first question is, the impact of Thailand's abandonment of the fixed exchange rate on Thailand's economy.

The second question is whether Thailand's abandonment of the fixed exchange rate will affect the economy of Hong Kong Island, and if so, how big the impact will be; the third question is whether Thailand's abandonment of the fixed exchange rate will have a knock-on effect. to Asia and the world.

The leader's instruction is that there is no right or wrong point of view, and there is no need to discuss the correct answers for these three questions, but the leader wants to hear analysis and views from different perspectives. So I hope all teachers can express their opinions. "

Secretary Chen said, closed the notebook, and then retreated to his seat.

Situ Jian said, "Everyone has heard the three questions raised by Secretary Chen! Then the content of our meeting today is mainly to discuss these three questions."

Situjian said, looked at everyone, and finally fixed his eyes on Li Weidong: "Chairman Li, in the last meeting, you successfully predicted the time when Thailand will abandon the fixed exchange rate. Today, I will let you say a few words first!"

Everyone immediately cast envious glances at Li Weidong.

The first to speak is obviously beneficial. This is probably like a speech contest. The first person to appear, no matter whether he speaks well or not, will definitely be remembered by the judges.

Moreover, in this kind of seminar, it is inevitable that the same opinions will appear, and at this time, the person who puts forward the point of view first will occupy the dominant position, and the experts who later express the same point of view will become the echoers.

For example, when everyone tastes an apple, Li Weidong is the first to express his opinion, saying that the apple is very sweet, and the next person who also says that the apple is very sweet becomes echoing Li Weidong's statement.

When the secretary Chen reported to the leader, he would also say that Li Weidong's point of view is that apples are sweet, and there are Zhang San, Li, four passers-by, Jiasha monk and others, who all agree with this point of view.

At this time, what the leaders can remember is Li Weidong, who put forward his views, not the monk Sha who was full of "big brother is right".

Therefore, the first person to speak, no matter if he is right or wrong, will definitely be able to show his face in front of the leader.

If the person's point of view happens to be correct, it's not as simple as showing his face in front of the leader.

There are so many economic experts in the conference room, and many of them are highly experienced. If it was normal, Li Weidong would definitely not be the first to speak.

But in the last seminar, Li Weidong successfully predicted the time when Thailand will abandon the fixed exchange rate, which has become an absolute plus point. Let Li Weidong be the first to speak, and no one else can fault it.

Of course, Li Weidong knew the importance of the first speech. He did not refuse, but said, "Since Academician Situ has named him, then I will show my humble opinion. If I am wrong, I hope all teachers will correct me!"

After the humility, Li Weidong cleared his throat and said, "I'll tell you my judgment first. I think Thailand's abandonment of the fixed exchange rate is a fuse, and this fuse will detonate a wave that will spread to the entire Asia-Pacific region. The Asian Financial Crisis in the region!"

The words "Asian financial crisis", Li Weidong said very clearly.

Hearing these words, there was an uproar at the scene!

Almost everyone thinks that Li Weidong is talking nonsense again!