Rebirth of the God-level Xueba

"How do you want to bet?" Raymond almost lay down on the table.

"The first is the first clinical phase. If you can guarantee the time and resources, I guarantee that some active substances must pass the first clinical phase. Otherwise, I don't want a penny." Yang Rui's words made everyone at the table dumbfounded.

Raymond subconsciously picked up a piece of belly, chewed and said, "Milestone payment method? Yes, but you don't want a penny? You don't want to pay?"

The milestone payment method can be said to be a kind of payment according to the progress, but it is different from the ordinary staged payment. The milestones established in advance are not necessarily related to the comprehensive progress or the overall progress.

This method also often appears in international projects, such as the construction of a railway, if it is paid in stages, such as completing one-fifth of the length, although the corresponding payment will be received, the engineering party is still responsible for the entire project. Otherwise, they will inevitably suffer claims and spit out the money they got before. However, if it is a milestone payment, the engineering party has not completed the responsibilities of the entire project. If you don’t want to do it or can’t finish it, just turn around and leave.

Pharmaceutical companies generally make milestone payments, because no one can guarantee that a drug will be marketed, let alone the sales volume after it is launched.

Yang Rui, on the other hand, was extremely confident, and said, "It's up to you to decide, I can give up the payment, but if there are active substances approved in the first clinical phase, I want 2000 million US dollars."

"Hey, brother, slow down." The Italian shouted as if he was suddenly hit by F1, "2000 million dollars to buy clinical phase I pass? It's a bit expensive."

"There is no payment of $200 million. Of course, the payment of $12 million and the first clinical milestone of $6 million are fine with me." Yang Rui shrugged.

The Italian did the math, and it seemed like a good deal to exchange the milestone of 2 million US dollars for a payment, so he spread his hands and said something in Italian.

Arnold regained his strength at this time, and said: "The payment of 12 million is a bit more, the payment of 10 million US dollars, the milestone of 5 million US dollars, Zeneca is willing to accept."

Although it was a bargain, it was also an Arnold-style gesture.

After all, having someone counter-offer means establishing a bottom line. Although the bottom line is really low.

However, it was also because Yang Rui's asking price was low enough that Arnold would bargain and show favor.

In the process of new drug development, preclinical research accounts for about 10% to 15% of the entire development cost, usually calculated at 13%.

In the 1980s, the cost of prescribing a new drug was more than 100 million U.S. dollars. The cost of developing a pure new drug usually exceeded 200 million U.S. dollars, and a few reached 500 million U.S. dollars. Based on such cost calculations, the work currently completed by Sinovel Labs should be valued at 26 million US dollars.

However, this is the price of an ordinary drug. As a rare drug, deferiprone has relatively weak profit prospects. Therefore, it is tempting for Yang Rui to offer a lower price.

Seeing that everyone had no other opinions, Yang Rui nodded and said, "That's it. Type A non-payment gambling agreement, with active substances passed, no matter how many types, the milestone is 200 million US dollars."

"Category B includes a VAM agreement that pays $1,000,000, and pays $1,000,000 regardless of whether any active substance passes, but if two active substances pass, the milestone is $5 million. Three active substances pass, the milestone $1,000,000, and so on.

If all seven active substances pass the first phase of clinical trials, an increase of US$ 30 million will be required. "

"no!"

"It's too high!" Everyone at the table objected.

The Japanese even stood up and said: "According to this calculation, Class B may have to pay a milestone of 4,000,000 U.S. dollars."

"Seven active substances have been approved in the first clinical phase, and $4,000,000 is not much, isn't it?" Yang Rui said indifferently.

"Too much, too much." The Japanese shook his head and said, "And the seven active substances are too many."

"No one would think that there are too many active substances. Besides, this is only the first phase of clinical trials. It's no big deal to have more bargaining chips and spend a little more money. Right." Yang Rui chuckled twice.

"No, we can't bear the cost of such rapid growth." The Japanese kept shaking their heads.

The Norwegians and Germans also objected, calling for a lower milestone amount.

Although the chances of all the seven active substances passing the first phase of clinical trials are very low, but the gambling itself is playing with the odds, and they certainly don't want to hang a sword on their heads.

It is also very difficult and unnecessary to falsify in clinical trials.

First of all, compared with tens of millions of dollars, it is more important for all seven active substances to pass the first phase of clinical trials. No company will save 5 million dollars after one active substance has passed the clinical trials. covered up.

Secondly, clinical trials are a very rigorous scientific research process. Although the possibility of cheating is unavoidable, if the agreement is signed properly, the whole process can basically be monitored. Moreover, many large companies subcontract clinical trials to professional third-party companies. This makes the cost of clinical trial falsification higher.

Uchio Aoki from Fujisawa Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. considered for a long time, and said: "For each additional active substance passed, we are willing to pay an additional milestone of 2 million US dollars."

"An extra 12 million for passing all seven types? Only 2 million more than Class A? Impossible, even the milestone of 3 million dollars will not work." With so many people present, only Yang Rui knew with certainty that the seven types must be passed, so, After he answered seriously, he said, "This is a VAM agreement. If you don't like the VAM agreement, you can completely renegotiate the overall price. Or you can choose a milestone of type A, and lock in the risk of the first phase of the clinical trial with 2 million US dollars."

After a short pause, Yang Rui said again: "If you choose a milestone and pass it, in theory, you can directly resell deferiprone to other companies. I think there will be people rushing to ask for $4000 or $5000. If you pass If there are more active substances, it is possible to double the sales, right? This means that if you take out 1 million US dollars, you can draw a grand prize of 2 million US dollars or 4 million US dollars.”

The cost of the Phase I clinical phase is the cheapest among the Phase IV clinical phases, because only a few dozen people are required to participate and do safety testing, which can be completed for about US$1 million.

Despite this, there are still very few drugs that can pass the clinical phase I, and they are very valuable.

Some companies are willing to purchase such drugs to reduce the risks in the early stage.

Uchio Aoki stopped talking.

As Yang Rui said, although the Class A milestones are expensive, when Yang Rui gets 20 million, it also means that the company that buys deferiprone will earn at least 20 million US dollars.

On the contrary, when Yang Rui couldn't get the money, it was the time when the biggest loss occurred, and the company that bought deferiprone would bear the risk of 1 million US dollars for this.

VAM agreements can reduce costs the most, and they can eventually sell the VAM risk to other financial companies or insurance institutions. Therefore, as long as the price of VAM is not too high, large pharmaceutical companies always have room for profit.

The overall purchase is different, the risk is to be borne by the company itself, and unless the price is extremely cheap, it is simply not feasible.

"The increase of active substances can be divided into more than four types and less than four types." The two Germans present were relatively young, with a little English accent, and spoke slowly, said: "I suggest. B milestones can also be increased. There are two types, and everyone is free to choose. According to what Mr. Yang Rui said, for each additional active substance passed, a certain amount of milestones will be paid to Huarui Laboratory. For category BB, I want to bet that more than two active substances pass. Less than four."

The four active substances are more suitable for clinical trials, which can increase the pass rate of clinical trials without significantly increasing the cost of clinical trials.

Of course, active substances are always the most and the best, here is just a matter of cost performance and probability.

Several people nodded in agreement.

Yang Rui summed up: "Then there are two categories, Category 8, for each additional active substance, an increase of US$ 5 million, if all seven categories are passed, an additional payment of US$ 3 million is required. Category BB, there are two active substances that pass the test. , $4 million milestone, three active substances passed, $8 million milestone, four active substances passed, $12 million milestone, five passed an increase of 22 million milestones, six passed 32 million, seven all passed, 4200 Ten thousand U.S. dollars."

The few people who heard the last number were secretly stunned, but no one objected. Seven active substances participate in the first phase of clinical trials. It is better to pass four of them, but it is not surprising to have two or three of them. Passing will save $1 million in fees, three passes will save $2 million, and four will save $3 million. Of course, five passes will add $2 million in expenses, six passes will add $7 million, and seven passes will add $12 million. Although this is not a balanced step-by-step increase, milestones are inherently rewarding. If seven All the tests were passed, which only shows that the deferiprone made by Huarui Laboratory is very powerful, and it deserves more money from others.

More importantly, if the seven active substances are passed, it means that the company that paid the money will also make more money. The simplest resale will have a profit of at least 40 to 50 million US dollars.

"The specific amount is subject to discussion, but we agree with this classification." Uchio Aoki of Fujisawa Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. nodded solemnly.

"If Sinovel Laboratories cooperates with Zeneca, Zeneca will choose the Type 8 agreement." Arnold couldn't wait to show his favor to Yang Rui.

It has to be said that the one with the most sincerity is still Zeneca, and the Type 8 agreement seems to be the most beneficial agreement for Yang Rui.

Raymond, who was also determined to win, sensed the crisis, took a deep look at Arnold, and turned his head desperately.

Yang Rui only sighed secretly in his heart.

Although Arnold tried his best to offer good conditions, in Yang Rui's view, the BB type agreement is the most profitable agreement.

In the first phase of clinical trials, it is true that unexpected events may occur, causing one or even two active substances to fail to pass, but the probability of that is really not high. After all, it is a safety experiment with only dozens of people participating. If the compound is okay, it is okay. At most, it will cause allergic reactions in some people. As long as it is not serious, it can still pass. There are basically no drugs that have no allergic reactions at all.

Even if Yang Rui really wants to bet against Zeneca, he is more willing to bet against a BB agreement.

On the other hand, Arnold looked like a strong man ready to kill, Yang Rui couldn't laugh or cry.

"we're next"

"Comrade, let's drink some tea." The owner of the stewed shop brought a pot of tea, refilled the big teacup in front of Yang Rui, interrupted him, and said in a low voice: "Comrade, it's okay, drink less wine , don’t quarrel, if you continue to behave like this, people from the neighborhood committee will come to speak.”

He pursed his lips backwards.

Yang Rui looked back, and sure enough, he saw the aunt of the neighborhood committee with the red armband, standing in front of the tofu stand not far from here, staring at this side.

Yang Rui was sure that if this table wasn't filled with foreigners, the aunt of the neighborhood committee would have rushed over.

"It's okay, we're just chatting." Yang Rui laughed twice.

The owner of the stew shop said "Oh" and then told him, "Then keep your voice down." He carried the tea kettle and staggered to the tofu stand to report.

Seeing him walk away, Yang Rui shook his head, took a sip of tea, reorganized his thoughts, and continued: "How about using a similar classification for the second phase of clinical trials? The milestone for one pass is 200 million US dollars, with three passes as the midline, each Pass one more, increase $10000000"

Raymond said cunningly: "The budget for the second clinical phase is usually 6,000 to 100 million US dollars. In this way, if two active substances pass the second clinical phase, we will pay you half of the budget."

"If there are two active substances that pass the second clinical phase, it is because the deferiprone active substance I synthesized is excellent, not because your clinical trials are good." Yang Rui said simply: "Milestones are used to reward and compensate us. Work, not punishment."

"According to the maximum amount, seven compounds have passed the first phase of clinical trials. If the BB category is used, we will have to pay 52 million"

"If you think that seven compounds will pass the first clinical phase, you should choose a type A agreement, which only costs 20 million US dollars." Yang Rui raised his voice a little.

Several people laughed hey.

This is the case with the betting agreement. If you bet wrong, you will spend more money, and if you bet right, you will spend less.

Raymond shrugged and said, "I just want to talk about the possible cost."

"Even I dare not think of this possibility." Yang Rui laughed. Of the seven compounds here, he has determined that all have a high probability of passing the first clinical phase, but at most four can pass the second clinical phase. If you are unlucky, there will be only two or even one.

Clinical phase I and clinical phase II are fundamentally different concepts.

"Comrade, were you talking about money just now?" The aunt of the neighborhood committee walked behind Yang Rui at some point.

Yang Rui turned around in surprise, and asked, "Is it about money, do you understand?"

The aunt smiled proudly, and said, "English is nothing special. In our alley, there are many people who know English."

At the entrance of the alley behind her, there were several red scarves swaying under the street lamp.

Yang Rui praised: "Excellent."

"You are the one who is amazing. Doing business with foreigners, what do you sell?" the aunt smiled.

Yang Rui was unwilling to answer, and said, "Nothing."

"There must be something, or else I will get excited. Comrade, which unit are you from?" The aunt's eyes sharpened.

. . . . . .