I Am a Nobleman in England

If you want Arthur to say objectively, is there a bubble in the Chinese economy?

Then his answer is undoubtedly yes, yes, and the bubble is not small, but he doesn't think this so-called big bubble will burst easily, so he added a deadline to the time.

The most important feature of an economic bubble is a rapid rise in asset prices followed by a sharp fall. Speculators often don't think they're in a bubble because they believe prices will rise.

Moreover, the necessary conditions for the formation of a bubble, in addition to the need for unprecedented super loose liquidity as a support, and behind any bubble there is a new word, new technology, new product, new economy, new concept, new business model, etc. in one New phenomena unknown to everyone before the era have aroused investors' longing for investment prospects.

Finally, behind the formation of any bubble, there is the visible support of the local government. The well-intentioned support of the bubble, in order to prevent the economic downturn, in order to promote the economic development, has had the unfortunate result. . .

The real estate market remains hot, land prices continue to rise, and the income from sweaty labor is even far inferior to income from real estate speculation or financial investment. What's even more frightening is that they continue to promote the so-called rigid bubble, which seems to be a bubble guaranteed by the government that will never burst. . . . . .

This is why there has always been a voice saying that China is repeating the footbath-style super foam, and it is the generation stage of the foam. It has to be said that there are indeed many similarities with the generation stage of the footbath super foam back then.

Bubbles always have to burst, they won't keep piling up forever.

Anyone with a little economic knowledge understands that for a healthy economy, real estate should not appear in its financial trading market. However, after real estate is endowed with financial attributes, it begins to have a negative impact on the entire financial system. an immeasurable amount of energy.

And on this planet called Earth, there are only three countries that have tried this devastating energy, the top three economies in the world—the Bald Eagle, the Foot Basin, and the Celestial Dynasty.

Of course, in fact, many small countries have also tried, but due to the small size of the economy, the impact on the world is very limited.

It is precisely because of the bald eagle's subprime mortgage crisis and the 20 years since the foot basin disappeared, that the people on earth finally deeply realized the destructive power of this energy comparable to the purple potato essence Thanos. And now, it is normal for some people to worry about what kind of sequelae this super bubble in China will bring to the world economy.

As a former member of the Celestial Dynasty, Arthur knows too well the development of the Celestial Dynasty in the next ten years.

So I also know that the real estate bubble will not cause problems within ten years, but just because there are no problems, it does not mean that there will really be no problems.

Because in the next ten years, the only thing that everyone in China cares about most is housing prices. In the future, the proportion of real estate in household assets has reached more than 70%, which has reached a level where almost no one can accept the decline in housing prices.

That's right, everyone hopes to enjoy the after-sleep economy, so that house prices can rise and make money while lying down and falling asleep. However, is this really the case? How many people can make this money?

In the stock market, a price that has not been sold is never called a real profit, and it is more difficult to cash out real estate than stocks. Who can be sure that they can be the ones who leave the market for the five percent?

Corresponding to the illusory high valuation is negative equity. Negative equity can eat people. It has eaten bald eagle people and foot basin people, but it has not eaten people from the Celestial Dynasty. . .

However, what is even more helpless is that Arthur knows better than anyone else that there are two kinds of tragedies in China, one is having no money and the other is not having a house.

What if neither?

Haha, will society abandon you?

Don't be ridiculous, the society doesn't even know who your fucking is!

Arthur, who has already stood in a higher position, looking back at the Chinese economy, is naturally very aware of the huge risks and crises in it. However, he, who came from ten years later, did not see the so-called bubble burst, but also There are indeed some clues.

High housing prices and real estate bubbles were complex mentalities for most people at the time, but on the whole, the most dominant mentality was luck.

It is this kind of fluke mentality that makes many people think that the real estate bubble has been shouted to collapse more than a dozen times, isn't it still continuing?

However, this kind of mentality is the same as the mentality of feeling that the first nine buns are redundant after eating the tenth bun, ignoring the existence of the cumulative effect. At that time, people including Arthur, who had a house in the capital, were thinking that the price had been raised for more than ten years, and it was not bad for the next few years, right?

But, in fact, in all financial trading markets, blindness to obvious risks is often the last stage before a crash.

It's just like the simple fact that when the last snowflake arrives, no one can tell which one caused the avalanche. Once an avalanche breaks out, no snowflake is innocent.

Arthur and Smith Jama boasted about how huge the market of 1.3 billion people is. In fact, it is nothing more than the vanity in the soul that does not want foreigners to look down on China. When the real estate super bubble causes a serious misallocation of resources, pay When everyone’s pockets are empty, they live in a poor life with a house of 10 million yuan, and when a house in a school district easily empties the wallet of a middle-class family. . .

The so-called huge consumer market is just a huh, if you have no money, you still spend a lot!

Of course, all of this will happen ten years later, and now it is naturally a prosperous and booming economic miracle. Arthur's small arms and tui can't control what will happen ten years later. Now he, All you need to do is to catch this fast-growing economic high-speed rail, make money, make a lot of money!

However, it seems that today is on the topic of bubbles. Arthur and Smith have just finished discussing whether the Chinese economic miracle is a super bubble, and Smith throws out a new question for Arthur to make judgments and decisions.

"Since the price of gold broke through the $1,000 mark, the international financial community has never stopped discussing whether there is a bubble in the price of gold. Among the seven global financial bubbles selected by Forbes recently, the gold bubble ranks first. Let the original market The debate that had died down on the Internet was rekindled.

Boss, gold accounts for almost half of your asset allocation. Have you considered reducing your holdings? "Jama Smith saw Arthur's brows furrowed tightly, but he still said what he needed to say.

Arthur shook his head, looked at Smith with some doubts and said, "Haven't we discussed the issue of gold investment many times before? I thought you were very clear about my thoughts and decisions. Why do you still ask?"

"Mainly this time, the debate on the gold bubble theory is very intense, and there are many different opinions and disputes in the company. Out of the attitude of being responsible for you, the boss, I must report the real situation to you, the boss. You refer to it and make a decision." Smith said with a serious expression.

"Hehe, thank you then." Hearing the reason Smith said, Arthur nodded and smiled in satisfaction, and continued: "However, I still have the original opinion and decision. Not only is there no bubble in the price of gold, but it is still underestimated. .

As for different opinions and suggestions, we can ask them to come up with the basis of their arguments for our reference. After all, no one can be sure of the future situation, and my basis is that gold is considered the best tool to fight inflation. Prices have not risen to keep up with inflation. In the future, the market will be in an environment of low interest rates and high inflation for a long time. From this perspective, the rise in gold prices will continue.

The currency in the post-financial tsunami era is flooded with debt. If we don’t buy gold, what else can we buy? "