I Am a Nobleman in England

"This week, the U.S. dollar has rebounded against both European currencies and commodity currencies. The euro against the U.S. dollar and the British pound against the U.S. dollar have made technical adjustments from their recent relative highs, with a range of about 3%. The U.S. dollar has not rebounded significantly against the foot basin.

Although the dollar is slightly stronger this week as a whole, it is expected to return to weak consolidation after a brief technical rebound. . . "

"I don't agree with this point of view!"

As the meeting progressed, the discussion became more and more heated. After the discussion on gold came to an end, the foreign exchange market became the focus of the meeting. After all, we all know that the current boss is heavily shorting the euro, and everyone wants to invest in this time. , put on a show and make yourself stand out.

In this regard, Arthur was optimistic, encouraging everyone to argue, smiling at an analyst who had just spoken, and said with a smile: "Scott, tell me your opinion."

"Okay, boss. Ladies and gentlemen, I believe everyone has seen the US economic data released today. It generally performed well. This undoubtedly raised investors' expectations that the Fed may raise interest rates early. The US dollar strengthened sharply on Friday, the 11th. The index once hit a one-month high, while the euro fell below the 1.4600 mark against the dollar and hit a two-month low at one point.

The Bald Eagle Department of Commerce announced on Friday that U.S. retail sales in November rose by 1.3 percent on a month-on-month basis, compared with expectations of only 0.7 percent, and core retail sales rose by 1.2 percent on a month-on-month basis, compared with expectations of 100 percent. 0.4/0.

A report released on Friday showed that U.S. consumer confidence rose in early December and reached its highest level since September. After the retail sales data, the U.S. dollar is already on the rise. After the release of the consumer confidence data, the U.S. dollar rose almost "crazily". "

This analyst named Scott talked eloquently, and all kinds of data were at his fingertips to support his point of view. Whether it was Arthur, the boss, or other people in the conference room, they all listened to his words with concentration. analyze.

"Retail sales data was strong, followed by stronger-than-expected consumer confidence data, which further supported the strength of the dollar. The market has been aggressively shorting the U.S. dollar for some time, but as the U.S. economic outlook improves, shorting the U.S. dollar is attractive to investors Force is reduced.

Therefore, I think today's dollar rebound may be the beginning of further improvement in dollar sentiment in the market outlook. As long as more U.S. economic data backs up the view that the recovery is gaining ground, the dollar could rise further in the short term. "

Scott's analysis is very good and has been recognized by many people present. One of the analysts said when everyone was discussing in a low voice: "I completely agree with Scott's analysis. Previously, strong US data will improve investment. Investors' risk appetite led to the strengthening of high-yielding currencies such as the euro and the Australian dollar. However, better US data can strengthen investors' expectations for an early interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve, which can help the dollar rise.

Let's not forget, rising U.S. Treasury yields also helped the dollar rebound, especially against the dollar. The outlook for the dollar is improving. "

Arthur nodded his head ponderingly. He was not biased towards xing. To be honest, he felt that the views of his subordinates were very reasonable, because everyone could come up with theories and data to support their views. In this case, he It is even more difficult to express your opinion easily.

Therefore, he turned his attention to Angela, the investment and financial advisor who has been listening since the meeting started, and did not express any opinions or opinions. He smiled and asked, "Angela, what do you think?"

Following Arthur's question,

The originally noisy conference room immediately became quiet, and everyone turned their attention to Angela, the key figure who had completely become the right-hand man of the young boss.

Angela, on the other hand, took everyone's attention calmly, and said with a calm smile: "Boss, information about the recovery of US data, such as a fall in the unemployment rate, will indeed strengthen the Fed's expectation of raising interest rates in advance, which is also the stage that leads to the creation of the dollar Xing rebound logic.

But in my opinion, the process is just technical, it won't be very strong, and it won't last long. And the turmoil in market sentiment caused by it is normal, after all, since March, the market has risen for 9 months.

I have doubts about the stabilization of the US economy. Because at the end of October, nine U.S. banks closed down in a single day, setting a new record since the financial crisis. This undoubtedly exposed that the loose monetary environment failed to offset the liquidity pressure of the U.S. banking industry, and the problem of non-performing loans is still weakening the lending capacity of the banking industry.

Fundamental concerns will restrict the recovery of private demand. The deleveraging of households and the financial sector has not been smooth. Although the household savings rate in the United States is rising, the debt ratio has not fallen. It now appears that the so-called "consumer deleveraging" is a dead end for rebalancing, and it cannot lead the US economy to balance at all.

More critically, a weak dollar will raise operating costs in traditional industries as a whole. In other words, only when traditional resources and energy are soaked in "water" can we fundamentally ensure that a large number of investments will continue to enter the low-carbon economy and fully guarantee the safety of these investments.

Only "re-industrialization" can realize the growth of disposable income, and the emergence of new wealth can reduce the debt ratio of households and countries. This is strategy. Therefore, before the United States completes its new strategic layout, the global economy will be soaked in a liquid "ocean" for a long time.

Of course, the above logic must have a premise that a weak dollar and inflation must be controllable. It depends on the ability of the Americans and whether the market's rational expectations will really appear. It now appears to be possible.

This may be a long-term process. It is really hard to believe that the bubble will burst in 2010, and it may not be in 2011. It is hard to say in the future. Before the new economic factors are established, the global commodity and emerging market asset bubbles will not really burst. Of course, there will be turmoil, and even the stage is very violent, but overall, asset and commodity prices will become very expensive.

At the same time, the volatility of stocks will be large, because it is not an asset in the general sense, and it is to some extent an emotional response to asset price volatility.

It depends on whether investors dare to extrapolate and capitalize the improvement of short-term performance indefinitely, which is the key to the new upward valuation.

If the market agrees that this improvement is staged and there is great uncertainty in the future, this growth will become meaningless economically.

Maybe the market is short-sighted and irrational, and there is no way if you are willing to deal with uncertainty as certainty, but this kind of money-making model is zero-sum, and it depends on who is the last successor.

To sum up, my point of view is that the dollar will continue to weaken. This is a strategy formulated by the bald eagle. Even if there is a rebound in the short term, it will not change the general trend. It will become more expensive, the European debt crisis will intensify, the euro will continue to depreciate, and the bearish outlook for the exchange rate remains unchanged. The target points to 1.4480 to 1.4450, and may even rush to 1.4280. "

Angela's series of analyzes and conclusions caused a brief silence in the conference room, and then there were various discussions. People in twos and threes got together and began to discuss some of Angela's points of view.

Arthur, on the other hand, nodded to Angela appreciatively, and said, "Excellent analysis!"

It has to be said that Angela's conclusions are basically the same as the development trend in his memory, which is already very rare in Arthur's view. At least in the future, he doesn't have to worry about Angela's ability, or what he believes in.

This meeting about the strategy for the coming year lasted for more than three hours, and the meeting did not end until it was close to lunch time. This meeting also brought many surprises to Arthur, especially when viewed in combination with his memory, let him I am full of confidence in my team.

The future is promising!

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