Hollywood Hunter

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As of January 1990, the proven oil reserves in the Gulf region accounted for 65% of the world's total oil reserves and 43% of the world's oil demand. Among them, Iraq and Kuwait are the only two countries whose oil reserves still rank among the top 10 in the world even after decades of exploitation.

It is therefore conceivable how strongly the turmoil in the Gulf region will have on the world's crude oil supply.

When the news of Iraq's invasion of Kuwait came on August 2, the international crude oil price began to soar rapidly. As of the close on Friday, August 3, the international crude oil price had soared to US$27.63 per barrel, an increase of 29 per barrel compared to before the outbreak of the war. %.

And, this is obviously just the beginning.

Simon just remembered that in the original time and space, the price of crude oil caused by the Kuwait war was $41.07 on October 21.

Because of the influence of Simon's big butterfly, many things are no longer so certain. However, Simon believes that the problem of the international crude oil price hitting the high of 40 US dollars this time is still not too big.

New York.

Cersei Capital headquarters at Rockefeller Center in Midtown Manhattan.

Although it was Sunday, the Cersei Capital headquarters was still full of people today, and even the teams at Apollo Management and Black Rock Asset Management were in high spirits.

Except for the loss of some profits due to the untimely liquidation of short positions in the last week before the outbreak of the war, the layout of Cersei Fund Management Company in various types of crude oil futures contracts has basically met expectations.

As of the outbreak of the war on August 2, Cersei Fund Management has established various types of crude oil futures such as mainstream Brent crude oil futures and wti crude oil futures, as well as surrounding light diesel futures, unleaded gasoline futures, and high-sulfur fuel oil futures. Huge long contracts totaling $25 billion.

Cersei Capital has been opening positions since the end of June, and the opening price based on international crude oil prices ranges from a minimum of $13 to $20 the day before the war broke out.

Starting next week, Cersei Capital will gradually liquidate its long positions.

In fact, this has been going on since the day the war broke out.

In fact, it's also because you have to take the initiative to do so.

Simon would like to start liquidation when crude oil prices approach or reach $40, but this is simply not realistic.

As we all know, futures trading is a zero-sum game. If someone makes money, someone must lose, and the profit and loss are equal.

For example, Cersei Capital itself, if it presses the wrong direction this time and establishes a short position of crude oil futures of up to 25 billion US dollars, then, once the war breaks out, the international crude oil price will skyrocket from US $20 before the war to a maximum of US $40, an increase of 100%, according to In the futures contract, Cersei Capital theoretically has to pay the other party a huge sum of 25 billion US dollars.

However, less than $6 billion remains in Cersei's capital account.

If the bulls insist on refusing to liquidate their positions within the range that Cersei Capital can lose, Cersei Capital can only default.

Defaults in the process of futures trading are very rare, but not without them. For example, the violent crude oil price fluctuations caused by the sudden war, perhaps before the outbreak of the war, some futures speculators can continue to add in the hope of the eventuality. The margin was barely maintained. After the outbreak of the war, hope was dashed, and many futures speculators simply chose to give up. Some speculators who took close to 20 times of high leverage directly defaulted on the day the war broke out.

However, speculators default, in fact, does not mean the default of futures contracts.

Because there are two guarantees of futures brokers and futures exchanges in the middle.

When the futures speculator's account funds are insufficient to cover the loss, as the transaction guarantee party, the futures broker will pay to make up the difference to ensure the transaction.

When the funds of futures brokers cannot ensure the completion of the transaction, the futures exchange will use its own reserve funds to make up for it.

In the worst case, in order to avoid the collapse of the futures trading system, the national level will also participate in the rescue.

In the 1987 stock market crash, S\u0026P 500 futures triggered a federal bailout because of the huge volatility on Black Monday. On the night of October 19, after the direct intervention of the Federal Treasury Department, the major banks in the United States were able to provide huge funds to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange to avoid default.

Because of the accident of the war, this time, crude oil futures trading also touched the exchange level.

This also means that if it is a $5 billion bet against $5 billion, the winning party will not only get the $5 billion at the speculator level, but also the futures broker and futures exchange to ensure the delivery of the contract. And subsidized large sums of money.

A conference room at Cersei Capital headquarters.

At the end of the day's meeting, it was already evening, and the summer sun broke into this office building with excellent views through the gaps in Manhattan's high-rise buildings.

After sending everyone else away, Janet got up and leaned over to sit in Simon's arms, humming to show that she was tired.

Simon smiled and helped her knead and relax, while saying: "After this time, probably many futures brokers will close their doors directly?"

Since this big market has spread to the exchange level, intermediary brokers are naturally not immune, and they often need to fill a large amount of funds to ensure delivery. Relatively speaking, the profits of the bulls will not feed back too much to the brokers, and they can only get a commission that they deserve.

"There are probably hundreds of them," Janet said, squinting her eyes lazily: "In addition to owning Goldman Sachs, Morgan, Citigroup, etc.

Some large brokers supported by parent companies, and many small and medium-sized independent brokers are basically closing their doors. "

Few speculators can directly cooperate with futures exchanges, and usually require futures brokers to draw guarantees from them.

There are many types of futures brokers, and half of the larger ones are affiliated with the futures brokerage departments of large investment banks. However, in North America and all over the world, in various countries and cities, there are countless small and medium-sized futures brokers.

In Simon's memory, because of this big market, countless futures brokers around the world have declared bankruptcy, and the entire industry will be stagnant for many years to come.

Moreover, this incident also triggered another consequence, a sharp contraction in crude oil futures trading.

For a long time to come, there will be no more short positions in the market at all, and Cersei Capital can no longer build large-scale positions, and can only turn its attention to other areas.

With the outbreak of the war, stock markets around the world fell sharply.

On August 2 and August 3, the S\u0026P 500 fell from a high of 371 points to 356 points at the close on Friday, and it is likely to fall to a minimum of 300 points in the next period of time. At the beginning, in order to focus on the crude oil futures market, Cersei Capital was not distracted by establishing a short position on the S\u0026P 500 index futures. Now that it enters the market, it is also impossible to do much.

In the plan, Cersei Capital will complete the liquidation next week.

Going forward, Cersei Capital has a lot of money, and because of the sharp shrinkage of various types of transactions, it is difficult to do much.

After the weekend, into a new trading day, crude oil prices continued to soar.

The situation in the Gulf also continued to be turbulent.

On August 7, the Bush administration officially approved Operation Desert Shield, and federal troops officially entered Saudi Arabia to defend against a possible Iraqi invasion.

However, when the "Desert Shield" plan was implemented, an anti-war wave broke out in the United States immediately. Both the media and the public were very worried that the Bush administration would drag the country into another protracted "Vietnam War".

The direct confrontation between the federal army and the Iraqi army in Saudi Arabia also means that the original promise of the United States not to intervene in Iraq and Kuwait became empty words.

At the same time, from August 6th to August 10th, Cersei Capital also quickly completed the liquidation of huge long positions.

The reason why the longs of more than 20 billion US dollars can complete the delivery so quickly is mainly because whether it is short futures speculators, futures brokers or futures exchanges, it is more urgent than Cersei Capital. With the continuous rise of international crude oil prices, For every day of delay, the loss increases by one point.

On August 11, when Cersei Fund Management completed all financial closings, the hedge fund's net asset value had grown from an initial $3.5 billion to $12,637.21 million. In less than 8 months, Cersei Fund Management has achieved a return on investment of more than 260%.

This time, although Simon only has a share of $1 billion in the $3.5 billion principal, the fund's commission rate is only 20%, and 30% of the 20% profit will be allocated to Cersei Fund Management Company. other partners. However, just based on the net asset value of $12.637 billion at this time, Simon’s profit and commission figures can reach $3.367 billion in addition to the $1 billion principal.

Over the next few months, Simon's cash hoarding overseas will total nearly $8 billion after the planned year-end settlement returns, even with zero earnings from Cersei Capital.

It can be said that Simon can basically complete the acquisition of mca with its own funds even considering the capital gains tax factor transferred into the country.

In addition, although Simon can only get one-third of the profits of Cersei Fund Management Company this time, he has also largely eliminated some potential hidden dangers caused by Simon's rapid rise in recent years through profit sharing.

Moreover, the profit of more than 9 billion US dollars seems to have been divided into a large part, but in addition to the Johnston family, which has a principal of 500 million US dollars, another larger piece of the cake has been cut, other Australian and American investors, scattered Down, the profit obtained is basically less than one-tenth of Simon's.

Simon himself remains the most profitable one.

After a week of work in New York, Simon and Janet returned to Los Angeles.

The next stage of the Cersei Fund Management team's instructions is free hunting, and both Simon and his wife no longer need to keep an eye on them.

With a 30% stake in Cersei Fund Management Company, the 6 partners of the team are very hopeful to receive hundreds of millions of dollars in dividends this year, and even ordinary employees have an expected huge bonus, so the team can be described as smug.

Back in Los Angeles, the time is already August 13.

The North American summer season has come to an end, and it has not been greatly affected by the outbreak of war.

Previously, on July 27, Daenerys Entertainment and Disney's "Hand Shaking the Cradle" was released in North American theaters, with 1,632 screens and a box office of $21.18 million in the first seven days of the week. "Sleep", but also reached the level of breaking 10,000.

In the second week from August 3 to August 9, "The Hand That Shakes the Cradle" dropped 23% at the box office in the second week, taking in another $16.33 million.

A total of 37.51 million US dollars has been accumulated in two weeks. Compared with the production cost of 11 million US dollars and the publicity budget of 6 million US dollars, the project has already begun to generate profits in half a month. However, it is somewhat difficult for "The Hand That Shakes the Cradle" to break through 100 million at the box office. It is expected that the North American box office will be around $80 million.

Of course, although it didn't meet expectations, a low-cost thriller with an investment of $11 million was able to earn $80 million at the box office in North America alone. Whether it was Disney or Daenerys, there was no dissatisfaction.

On August 10th, Daenerys Entertainment's New World Pictures produced "Haunted Ghosts 3".

This series of horror films, which started at the end of the summer season, opened with a scale of 1,329 screens. The box office in the first week was 6.13 million US dollars. In between, Daenerys Entertainment can expect to be profitable.

However, since the two sequels in a row didn't make much of a breakthrough, Shinsegae plans to release subsequent sequels directly through videotape and cable platforms. On the one hand, this can save costs, and on the other hand, it can also free up time for other films produced by New World Pictures.

Daenerys Entertainment's "Ghost Love", which started in the summer, has been released for 11 weeks as of August 9, and the cumulative box office has reached 149 million US dollars, and the overall box office figures continue to move firmly towards the 200 million US dollars mark. .

"Sleeping with the Enemy", which is a collaboration with Fox, has reached a cumulative box office of $93.81 million in the eighth week of its release, steadily rushing towards the 100 million yuan mark, and is expected to hit even higher box office figures.

In addition, "Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles", which was released only five weeks ago, has already reached 103.53 million US dollars at the North American box office, and exceeded 100 million yuan ahead of "Sleeping with the Enemy". However, due to the continued large decline, the box office of "Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles" has fallen to less than 5 million US dollars in a single week, and it is expected to have less than 20 million US dollars of box office potential.

Regardless of overseas funds, in the first half of the year, only Daenerys Entertainment brought Simon a net profit of more than 500 million US dollars. In order to avoid the continued depreciation of a large amount of cash in his hands, while taking into account the acquisition of mca, Simon also began to more Consider investing in other directions.

Speaking of it, the reason why the rich can get richer is roughly because of this.

Of course, in the second half of the year, the acquisition of mca is still the top priority of Simon's plan.

The outbreak of the Kuwait war caused the stock market to fall, and the stock price of mca was naturally not immune.

From August 6th to August 10th, the stock price of mca fell by 9%, and the price per share fell to less than 40 US dollars. By the new week of August 13th, the opening price of mca stock has fallen to 39.25 US dollars. , This drop in share price even the good news that Panasonic intends to acquire mca has not been able to stop it.

Panasonic's acquisition of mca, although it has not been made public since Michael Ovitz's trip to Tokyo was accidentally crashed last time, is no longer a secret in the eyes of many people. Michael Ovitz's secret meeting with mca board members also came to light unexpectedly.

However, because of the bursting of Japan's economic bubble, Japanese corporate giants generally have to first ensure that their operations will not be affected by the economic crisis.

Moreover, Sony's non-stop payment of 'tuition fees' in Hollywood over the past year has aroused the vigilance of Panasonic, although Panasonic has accumulated more than 12 billion US dollars of funds overseas through the accumulation of previous years, which is easy enough to complete the The acquisition of mca, but the industry generally predicts that Panasonic's acquisition of mca will be conservative and will no longer be as lavish as Sony.

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