Hollywood Hunter

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While "Lola Run" and "The Butterfly Effect" are still hot, Disney announced the next day that it will launch a distribution cooperation with Daenerys Pictures on the "When Harry Met Sally" project. information.

Daenerys Pictures here.

Although he was dissatisfied with Simon's promise of Disney's $6 million guaranteed commission, due to the agreement that the project distribution in the original contract was entirely dominated by Daenerys Films, Dennis O'Brien, the head of Craft Films, could only complain. some time.

After several days of negotiations, on May 5, Daenerys Pictures officially signed a distribution contract with Disney for "When Harry Met Sally".

With the release of "When Harry Met Sally" finalized, Daenerys only needs to focus on completing the production of three films, and Simon has begun to turn some of his energy to another of his projects.

Wednesday, May 6.

In the apartment of Century Building, Simon did not go out this morning.

For the sake of confidentiality, the two managers of Lehman Brothers personally went to the door to open a futures account for him.

Near 11 o'clock, Jeff Robertson, senior vice president of Lehman Brothers, re-checked the various formalities, carefully put some documents in his briefcase, then got up and said to Simon: "Mr. Westeros , for the next thing, you can contact Noah directly. Of course, if you need any help, you can also call me at any time. "

Simon politely shook hands with Jeff Robertson and sent him out the door before looking at the white man in his thirties who stayed beside him. The man was about Simon's height, with brown hair, a clean face, and a neat white shirt and black trousers.

This is the classmate Janet introduced to Simon, named Noah Scott. The other party is currently serving as the vice president of the Chicago branch of Lehman Brothers, mainly responsible for the business of commodity futures.

In order to sign Simon, a big client, Noah Scott came over from Chicago.

The two sat down on the sofa in the living room again. Simon looked at the young man opposite and said tentatively, "Noah, if I guess correctly, you and Jenny are not in the same class, right?"

Noah Scott shook his head, looked at Simon as well, and said, "Sorry, Simon, Jenny and I are still in the same class."

Simon raised his eyebrows slightly and said, "Then, you should be more powerful than I thought."

If the same class as Janet, Noah Scott may only be 27 years old this year. At the age of 27, he became the vice president of Lehman Brothers, which was somewhat beyond Simon's expectations.

Investment banking has a different job system than other companies.

In the early stage of the development of investment banks, in order to maintain an equal position with corporate executives in the process of business negotiation, investment banks have named their employees as managing director, executive general manager, senior vice president, vice president, assistant vice president and other positions. All the names have since been retained.

So on Wall Street, the slightly larger investment banks typically have several hundred VPs.

However, this by no means means how easy it would be to become a vice president of an established investment bank like Lehman Brothers. An excellent business school graduate joins an investment bank, from the lowest analyst to assistant vice president to vice president. , Under normal circumstances, it is basically impossible not to survive for seven or eight years.

In the face of Simon's surprise, Noah Scott was very calm and said: "Actually, Simon, my father is a senior executive of Express. Of course, I am also confident enough to be qualified for the current position. Your funds are placed in I'm pretty safe here. So, what are you going to do next?"

Simon vaguely recalled what seemed to be the acquisition of Lehman Brothers by American Express a few years ago, but not in too much detail. However, Simon also knows that although there are many elites in large investment banks, they are also full of various relationships.

Out of trust in Janet, Simon didn't bother about this.

However, after hearing the other party's question, Simon did not intend to tell Noah Scott about his plans. The two have not yet reached that level of trust, and there are too many things on Wall Street that backhand their clients.

"Noah, $75 million is going to hit Westeros' account this afternoon. Back in Chicago, all you need to do is buy 1,000 S\u0026P 500 futures for the last two days of the week. September long contracts.”

Noah Scott nodded slightly and asked, "Then what?"

Simon said succinctly: "Wait. Wait for the next instruction I give you."

Noah Scott thought for a while, and then tried again: "Simon, do you want to be a long-term player?"

"Maybe," Simon replied noncommittally, looking at the young man opposite, and said, "Noah, you have to understand that I don't need investment consulting. My request is very simple, I said, you do it."

Noah Scott felt Simon's sharp eyes, shrugged a moment later, and slightly changed his posture on the sofa, saying, "Of course, Simon, the customer is God. However, you don't seem to trust me too much. "

Simon asked rhetorically, "If we switched places, would you trust me the first time we met?"

"If I were 19 years old, I might believe it," Noah Scott said with a bit of ridicule, but then added: "In that case, Simon, maybe we don't have much to talk about in terms of business. . So, can you tell me how you caught up with Jenny? Many of us tried to pursue her back then, but all failed."

Simon didn't want to talk too much about his and Janet's privacy, just shook his head, got up and said, "Sorry, Noah, I can't invite you to lunch today, maybe there will be a chance later."

Noah Scott didn't bother, got up and shook hands with Simon, and said, "I look forward to increasing the trust between us next time we meet."

After sending Noah Scott away, Simon found a recent chart of the S\u0026P 500 from the coffee table in the living room and came to the study.

Standing in front of the large white writing board by the wall of the study, Simon raised the S\u0026P 500 index chart in his hand as of yesterday, and compared it with another S\u0026P 500 chart drawn from memory on the writing board.

In order to avoid the memory being disturbed, Simon had not paid attention to the various recent stock index curves before today. But at this time, the S\u0026P 500 curve in his hands before May 6, 1987 was basically consistent with another curve before the relevant time node on the tablet.

Well, the memory is clearly not wrong.

Simon is also basically relieved. Although he has his own "butterfly", he does not think that the S\u0026P 500 index futures market, which has a daily turnover of more than 1 billion US dollars, will be severely disrupted.

According to the information accumulated during this period, Simon found that 1987 was completely the "wild era" of stock index futures trading. This era is full of opportunities, but there are also numerous pitfalls, which can make people rich overnight, and it is enough to make people go bankrupt in an instant.

Unlike commodity futures, which have been developed for more than a century, the world's first stock index futures only appeared in the United States in 1982, five years ago.

In 1982, it happened to be the beginning of a new round of stock bull market in the United States.

Since 1982, the Dow Jones Index, the most important measure of the U.S. stock market, has risen from 800 points to 2,300 points recently. Simon also knows that in the next few months, the Dow Jones Index will rush to above 2,700 points.

The vigorous development of the stock market has easily covered up various drawbacks in stock index futures trading.

People with a little knowledge of futures probably know that stock index futures have daily price limit rules, circuit breaker mechanisms, debt-free settlement, position limits and other trading rules to protect the market.

However.

Now in 1987, none of these are available.

The Dow Jones index futures have not yet been launched. Take the current mainstream S\u0026P 500 index futures as an example. The trading process of stock index futures is actually very simple.

The recent S\u0026P 500 index is around 270 points, and in Simon's memory, the S\u0026P 500 peaked above 330 points at the end of August.

So.

Here is an example of a 300-point integer in the S\u0026P 500:

Every stock index future has a 'contract multiplier', and the S\u0026P 500 futures 'contract multiplier' was $250, but now it's $500.

Thus, the actual value of each S\u0026P 500 futures contract is 'index points' multiplied by the 'contract multiplier', which is $150,000. However, futures speculators only need to pay a 10% margin to buy a contract, or $15,000.

Next, every 1 point increase or decrease in the S\u0026P 500 means a profit or loss of $500 on a contract.

$500 may not seem like much, but when multiplied by 10,000 contracts, the profit and loss represented by each 1-point change in the index will expand to $5 million.

Based on the $15,000 margin per contract, 10,000 contracts require $150 million in margin. So, on the surface, a profit and loss of $5 million is still nothing.

From 1982 to the present, the stock market in North America has shown a very stable rise, with few drastic fluctuations. Because of this relatively flat market, the 'lowest price move' for an S\u0026P 500 contract is actually 0.1 point.

Because there has not been much change, the federal regulators have not imposed various restrictions on the stock index futures market for five years.

There is no price limit rule, no circuit breaker mechanism, no daily debt-free settlement system, no position limit...

then.

When the Great Crash of October 19, 1987 occurred, disaster struck.

In Simon's memory, on October 19, the S\u0026P 500 gapped down to below 200 points directly from 281 points at the close of the previous Friday.

80 points drop.

what does that mean.

It is still calculated according to 10,000 contracts.

If someone mistakenly opened 10,000 long contracts at 281 on the day of October 16, the full margin would be about $140 million. On October 19, his loss per contract would be $500 multiplied by 80 points, or $40,000.

With 10,000 long contracts and a loss of $40,000 per contract, the overall loss will reach $400 million. Relative to the $140 million margin, the loss ratio is close to 300%.

Actually.

In the stock market crash of 1987, there was indeed such an unlucky guy who made a mistake in betting on a huge number of long contracts. That man was named George Soros. Later, the financial tycoon suffered a huge loss of 800 million US dollars.

In the end, the Quantum Fund, whose net asset value just exceeded $3 billion that year, shrank by more than a quarter in just a few days.

Now.

Apartments in the Century Building.

Simon looked at the S\u0026P 500 index, which was on the rise until the end of August, on the writing board of the study.

I feel a little numb at the plan that is about to be implemented in a month.

in front of the curve.

270 at the beginning of May to 330 at the end of August. The overall rise of 60 points is no less than a stock market crash. A 60-point gain would yield a profit of $30,000 per long contract. Profit margins are good enough to exceed 200%.

A turbulent September.

Avoid.

October 19.

281 points to 200 points, 80 points drop, the real stock market crash.

Soros has a well-known theory of reflexivity. In simple terms, there are unpredictable interactions between market participants and the market all the time.

Simon naturally considered that the addition of his "butterfly" would change the original market trend.

but.

Counting all the expected chips, he now has just over $100 million.

If you really lose, you lose.

Just start all over again.

but.

If won.

In his journey to the top of the pyramid, Simon will climb too many steps at once.

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